Sudan conflict ‘likely to be protracted,’ top US intelligence official says

The conflict between Sudan’s military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is “likely to be protracted” because both sides believe they can prevail militarily and have few incentives to negotiate, the top US intelligence official said on Thursday.

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines presented the bleak US intelligence assessment of the fighting that erupted on April 15 in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

The assessment cast a shadow over international efforts to persuade the foes to end the violence, which has killed hundreds, prompted some 100,000 people to flee to neighboring countries and raised the specter of a worsening humanitarian crisis.

“The fighting in Sudan between the Sudanese armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces is we assess likely to be protracted as both sides believe they can win militarily and have few incentives to come to the negotiating table,” Haines said.

The foes, she continued, both are seeking “external sources of support,” which if forthcoming, “is likely to intensify the conflict and create a greater potential for spillover challenges in the region.”

The ongoing violence, Haines warned, is worsening “already dire humanitarian conditions” and forced aid organizations to curtail operations amid growing fears of “massive refugee flows.”

The UN has pressed the warring factions to guarantee safe passage of aid after six trucks were looted.

UN aid chief Martin Griffiths said he hoped to have face-to-face meetings with both sides within two to three days to secure guarantees from them for aid convoys.

Fierce fighting could be heard in central Khartoum on Thursday as the army tried to push back the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces from areas around the presidential palace and army headquarters, with a lasting ceasefire appearing elusive.

Each side appears to be battling for control of territory in the capital ahead of any possible negotiations, though the leaders of both factions have shown little public willingness to hold talks after more than two weeks of fighting.