OPEC+ keeps oil policy unchanged, could pause October hike

OPEC+ has decided to keep its oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start unwinding one layer of output cuts from October.

Top ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, or OPEC+ as the group is known, held an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting on Thursday.

The oil producers’ alliance also reiterated that the hike could be paused or reversed if needed.

OPEC+, in a statement, said the members making those cuts “reiterated that the gradual phase-out of the voluntary reduction of oil production could be paused or reversed, depending on prevailing market conditions.”

These countries had announced the extension of the voluntary reduction of oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of September 2024 and outlined plans for this reduction to be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2025.

Oil prices have fallen from a 2024 high above $92 a barrel in April to below $82, pressured by concern about the strength of demand but finding support this week from increasing tensions in the Middle East.

OPEC+ in total is currently cutting output by 5.86 million bpd, or about 5.7 percent of global demand, in a series of steps agreed since late 2022.

According to the official statement: “The Committee will continue to monitor the conformity of the production adjustments decided at the 37th ONOMM held on the 2nd of June 2024, including the additional voluntary production adjustments announced by some participating OPEC and non-OPEC countries and will continue to closely assess market conditions.”

At its last meeting in June, the group agreed to extend cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a year until the end of 2025 and to prolong the most recent layer of cuts — the 2.2 million bpd cut by eight members — by three months until the end of September 2024.

Thursday’s meeting also noted assurances from Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia to achieve full conformity with pledged output cuts, the statement said. Those countries had earlier delivered plans to compensate for past overproduction.

The JMMC usually meets every two months and can make recommendations to the wider OPEC+ group.

The JMMC will hold its next meeting on Oct. 2.