Saudi banking sector set for 9% Q2 earnings growth, analyst forecasts

The Saudi banking sector is poised to witness an earnings rise in the second quarter of 2024, with an anticipated 9 percent annual growth, a financial analyst has forecast.

In an interview with Al Ekhbariya, Hussein Al-Attas voiced confidence in the upcoming performance of the banking division, anticipating significant improvements for the petrochemical industry.

He also noted that consulting firms hold a positive outlook for the second quarter’s results, specifically in the banking, communication, and retail divisions.

However, while optimism prevails for these three sectors, there are divergent opinions regarding the performance of the cement and petrochemical fields.

The analyst indicated that despite differing views, the sector is expected to show improved performance in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, albeit slightly less than the first three months of this year.

He attributed this slower growth to the fact that many companies underwent periodic maintenance closures in the first quarter, impacting their performance.

In Saudi Arabia, amidst its position as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, plans for revenue diversification offer banks opportunities to invest in relatively low-risk public and private sector projects.

The private sector, comprising around 90 percent of total bank assets, continues to expand due to a robust economy, higher oil prices, and ongoing government support, all contributing to anticipated growth in banks’ asset bases.

Moreover, the Kingdom ranks among the world’s leading petrochemical producers, accounting for approximately 7 percent of global supply, as reported by the International Trade Administration.

The industry has grown substantially, solidifying the nation’s role as a primary exporter of petrochemical resources.

However, the sector grapples with challenges, including an uncertain demand recovery amidst high interest rates and weak macroeconomic fundamentals, elevated shipping costs and logistical challenges from ongoing Red Sea issues, and seasonal factors affecting demand.

Al-Attas forecast that notable improvements are anticipated for companies such as SABIC, Advanced, and Yansab, which saw increased sales volumes and completed their first-quarter maintenance.

The analyst noted that these companies were nearly fully operational in the second quarter. Moreover, there have been improvements in certain petrochemical products despite unstable global demand stemming from geopolitical tensions.

According to Al-Jazira Capital’s forecast report, the sector is expected to experience a 95 percent earnings growth compared to the previous quarter, which saw multiple plant shutdowns. SABIC is projected to lead this increase, benefiting from volume recoveries following the first quarter turnarounds.

Additionally, Tasnee and Advanced are anticipated to return to profitability during this period, contributing to the sector’s overall earnings.