Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector growth steady with PMI at 56.4

Saudi Arabia’s private sector non-oil growth remained steady in May, with the Kingdom’s Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 56.4, a slight decline from 57 in April, official data showed.

According to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI report by S&P Global, business activity in Saudi Arabia rose at a substantial rate in May, continuing a period of robust output growth across the non-oil economy.

In March, PMI stood at 57, while it was 57.2 in February and 55.4 in January.

S&P Global noted that any PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the non-oil sector, while readings below 50 signal contraction.

Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, said: “The PMI for Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy shows a positive trend, driven by increasing demand as evidenced by the rise in new orders. This growth has necessitated an increase inemployment to meet the growing demand for goods and services.”

He added: “However, the surge in demand has also led to price pressures impacting input prices and staff costs, although the increase in output prices has been observed at a slower pace. This balancing act reflects the challenges faced by businesses in managing costs while trying to capitalize on the expanding market.”

The report highlighted that business activity and new order growth in the Kingdom remained steep in May, amid further reports of strong demand conditions, especially in domestic markets.

Robust inventory growth continued in May after reaching its highest on record in April, as companies sought to prepare for strong sales performances in the future.

“Furthermore, the rise in inventory levels and prices has prompted firms to adjust their purchasing behaviors to align with their sales strategies. This cautious approach indicates a strategic response to the changing market dynamics and the need to maintain a sustainable business model,” added Al-Ghaith.

The PMI survey noted that companies reported increasing their activity due to strong demand conditions and efforts to fulfill pending workloads.

The report added that business growth was broad across the monitored sectors, with construction noting the sharpest expansion.

Moreover, companies operating in the non-oil private sector increased their employment levels in May, primarily driven by higher workloads, offsetting the first decline in over two years in April.

Al-Ghaith further noted that Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify the Kingdom’s economy will strengthen the growth of the non-oil gross domestic product.

“The latest flash estimates of the non-oil GDP growth in the first quarter and the forecast for the second quarter suggest a continuation of this upward trajectory. It is anticipated that the non-oil GDP growth will exceed 3 percent, driven by ongoing efforts to diversify the economy in line with Vision 2030,” said Al-Ghaith.

He added: “This strategic vision underscores the government’s commitment to reducing its dependence on oil revenues and fostering a more diversified and resilient economy, paving the way for sustained growth and development in various sectors.”

Kuwait PMI climbs

In another report, S&P Global revealed that the PMI of Kuwait climbed to 52.4 in May from 51.5 in April, driven by sharp and accelerated increases in new business.

The credit rating firm noted that Kuwait witnessed the strongest output growth in four years.

“The strategy being implemented by a number of firms in Kuwait’s non-oil private sector continued to pay off in May, with a focus on advertising and competitive pricing leading to rapid increases in output and new orders,” said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The report highlighted that the increase in staffing levels in May was only marginal, resulting in a record accumulation of work backlogs.

“The challenge for firms at present is keeping up with demand. While employment returned to growth in May, the rate of job creation was only marginal and insufficient to prevent the strongest build-up of outstanding business in the survey’s history,” said Harker.

He added: “Capacity will need to be ramped up in future if companies are to be able to satisfy customer requirements in a timely manner.”

The economic survey further noted that Kuwait witnessed a steep expansion in new orders. At the same time, new export orders also increased at a faster pace midway through the second quarter of the year.

On the other hand, the pace of inflation eased to the weakest in the year-to-date in May.

Egypt’s PMI jumps to 33-month high

Meanwhile, Egypt’s PMI significantly rose to 49.6 in May from 47.4 in April, marking the highest reading since August 2021.

According to the report, business activity in May dropped at the slowest rate since last July, while firms took on more staff amid growing confidence that sales will begin to improve.

Similarly, new business levels fell at the slowest rate since September 2021, while new export orders increased for the second time in three months amid rising foreign demand.

“May’s PMI reading of 49.6 was the first indication that the rapid cooling of price pressures is starting to boost the Egyptian non-oil private sector. The output and new orders metrics closed most of their gaps to the 50.0 growth threshold, with the services and construction sectors even seeing a turnaround in activity as comments suggest that greater price stability fueled client spending,” said David Owen, a senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

He added: “That said, ongoing downturns in industries such as manufacturing and wholesale and retail show that the recovery is still lopsided and may take more time to spread across the rest of the economy.”

On the other hand, business activity fell moderately during May, reflecting a mixed picture across various sectors. Manufacturing, wholesale, and retail posted further declines, contrasting with uplifts across services and construction.

“With input cost inflation easing further, the data nonetheless signals a promising outlook for Egyptian businesses. Purchase costs rose at their slowest rate in four years, leading to only a mild increase in selling prices, which should give customers greater confidence to spend,” added Owen.

The survey also highlighted that business confidence toward the 12-month outlook ticked higher in May as firms hoped that economic conditions would strengthen in the coming months.

Qatar’s non-oil sector gains momentum

Meanwhile, Qatar Financial Center revealed that the country’s PMI hit 53.6 in May, up from 52.0 in April.

According to the report, Qatar’s non-energy private sector gained notable momentum in May, driven by a rise in output and new orders.

“The May results clearly indicate that the non-energy private sector has moved up a gear as we approach the halfway point of 2024.

Growth rates for output and new orders accelerated notably, and companies became more optimistic regarding the next 12 months,” said Yousuf Mohamed Al-Jaida, CEO of QFC Authority.

He added: “Both the wholesale and retail and the services sectors continued to drive expansion in May, and financial services remained a bright spot.”

The report added that financial services companies in Qatar also recorded much faster growth in volumes of total business activity and new contracts in May.

Moreover, business confidence regarding the next 12 months strengthened in May, driven by development plans and marketing campaigns.

According to the report, the level of incoming new work expanded at the sharpest rate in eight months, with companies attributing this trend to their high-quality products and services.