Global LNG supply to increase by 80% by 2030: Goldman Sachs

The global liquefied natural gas supply is set to surge by 80 percent by 2030, driven by new projects in Qatar and North America, a new analysis showed.

In its latest report, Goldman Sachs said that this robust rise in supply would bring an end to the current energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The US-based financial services firm also highlighted that investments in LNG are projected to increase by over 50 percent by 2029.

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs’ head of natural resources research in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said: “LNG in the US, without any doubt, is dominating future supply and we believe that the capacity growth in LNG is going to bring an end to the energy crises that began a couple of years ago, following European sanctions on Russian gas after the invasion of Ukraine, and work to lower natural gas prices in Europe and Asia.”

He added: “We’re projecting an 80 percent increase in global LNG supply by 2030, which will be driven by new projects in North America and Qatar.”

In January, QatarEnergy signed an agreement with US-based Execelerate Energy to supply up to 1 million tonnes per annum of LNG to Bangladesh for 15 years.

Similarly, in February, Qatar’s state-owned firm signed another agreement with Petronet to supply 7.5 mtpa of LNG to India for a period of 20 years.

In the same month, QatarEnergy chief Saad Al-Kaabi announced a new expansion of its LNG production in the North Field, which will add a further 16 mtpa to existing capacity, bringing total production to 142 mtpa.

The Goldman Sachs analysis further pointed out that the oil and gas industry is undergoing a major transformation as it braces for the eventual long-term decline in crude demand and rising global need for natural gas.

According to the report, oil companies are still likely to reap attractive returns for shareholders, as well as good per-share growth if crude prices stay between the range of $80 to $90 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs highlighted that capital expenditure in the oil and gas industry grew at about 11 percent a year from 2020 to 2023, but it is likely to level off to around 4 percent a year from 2023 to 2026.

The analysis suggested the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is likely to maintain its current production discipline for the next few years.

“In the next two to three years, there is very little opportunity for OPEC to increase production capacity without rocking the market. We think non-OPEC production will peak this year, and then OPEC can potentially begin increasing its market share as decline rates rise and the project pipeline normalizes,” added Goldman Sachs.