GCC countries to lead Mideast energy transition

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman are set to lead the Middle East’s solar transition thanks to several key factors, according to a new report.

In its latest analysis, Norwegian business intelligence and research company Rystad Energy stated that solar power is becoming increasingly important in the energy policies of Middle Eastern countries.

As the cheapest energy source, solar photovoltaics in Saudi Arabia has achieved a world record-low levelized cost of electricity of $10.4 per megawatt-hour, the report stated. It further explained that this is due to factors such as low hurdle rates, large-scale projects, and declining hardware prices, as well as low labor costs and high solar irradiance.

“The region has exceptional solar energy potential, receiving more than 2,000 kilowatt-hours per sq. m. annually in solar irradiation in countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman,” the report stated.

The total solar capacity in the Middle East at the end of 2023 exceeded 16 gigawatts and is expected to approach 23 GW by the end of 2024, the report added.

Rystad Energy’s projections indicate that by 2030, the capacity will surpass 100 GW, with green hydrogen projects contributing an annual growth rate of 30 percent.

The report stated that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman are on track to collectively account for nearly two third of the region’s total solar capacity by the end of the decade.

By 2050, renewable sources, including hydro, solar, and wind, are expected to constitute 70 percent of the Middle East’s power generation mix, a significant leap from 5 percent at the end of 2023, the report stated.

Despite this surge, the region will rely heavily on natural gas in the short term, with usage peaking around 2030.

The report added that at the end of 2023, 93 percent of the Middle East’s power generation was from fossil fuels, with renewables at 3 percent and nuclear and hydro at 2 percent each.

By 2030, 30 percent of installed capacity is expected from renewables, potentially reaching 75 percent by 2050.

Rystad Energy predicts battery energy storage will grow significantly in the 2030s, supporting the transition to solar and wind power. The share of gas in power generation is expected to decrease from 74 percent in 2023 to 22 percent by 2050.