After Turkish greenlight, Swedish NATO train on the move

Turkiye’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee has given the green light to Sweden’s NATO accession bid after arduous debate and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent visit to Hungarian PM Victor Orban.

The long-awaited decision, which was much delayed, significantly advances the Scandinavian country’s aspirations to join the Western security alliance.

There is no scheduled public timeline for the Swedish vote.

Upon the approval of the committee, another 48 hours must pass before it is brought to the general assembly.

Once the parliament speaker schedules a debate on the issue, the parliament will consider the final vote.

Paul Levin, director of the Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies, noted the cautious optimism prevailing in Sweden.

While progress is acknowledged, past experiences warrant hesitancy in prematurely declaring victory.

“This month’s call between US President Joe Biden and his Turkish counterpart Erdogan was probably important in moving the matter forward,” he told Arab News.

The backing from significant Turkish political factions, including the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, and the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, sets the stage for probable majority ratification as they have more than 440 seats in the parliament.

“This means that even if there are several defections, they will easily find the 301 votes necessary for ratification,” Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of German Marshall Fund of the US, told Arab News.

The recent measures taken by Stockholm to address Turkiye’s domestic security concerns have mostly pleased the ruling government and its nationalist ally, but Ankara reportedly expects more from Sweden to halt terrorism financing.

However, unresolved issues persist, notably Sweden’s recent steps addressing Turkiye’s domestic security, which have partially appeased Ankara.

Yet, expectations linger for Sweden to intensify efforts in curbing terrorism financing.

The unresolved US-Turkiye F-16 jet deal, pivotal for Turkish military upgrades, remains a crucial sticking point.

Ankara’s reliance on the US, not Sweden, for military aircraft upgrades, underscores the complex coordination between Sweden’s NATO ratification and the US sale of F-16s to Turkiye.

The interplay of these processes prompts uncertainty regarding the timing of notifying the US Congress.

According to Unluhisarcikli, the ratification in Turkiye’s parliament is clearly coordinated with the US over Washington’s sale of a new fleet of F-16s to Ankara.

Therefore, Turkiye’s expectation is now not from Sweden but from the US, because Ankara urgently needs to upgrade its aircraft.

“However, we don’t know how exactly this will play out. Will the Biden administration wait for full ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership before notifying the Congress of the F-16 deal, or will the Biden administration notify the Congress immediately so that the two processes will proceed simultaneously? We’ll have the answer very soon,” he said.

Swedish expert Levin agrees.

“Sweden’s NATO accession has become hostage to a showdown over the F-16 deal, and Ankara appears loathe to give up its leverage without first getting F-16s,” he said.

“There is little trust between the US and Turkiye these days, and Erdogan is likely worried that he cannot trust Congress to approve the deal if he gives up the veto over enlargement. He has asked that Congress and the Turkish parliament do the two processes simultaneously,” Levin said.

While the Biden administration endorsed the jet sale to Ankara, the State Department has not yet submitted the formal notification to Congress for review.

But some members of Congress have voiced their opposition to the sale, criticizing Turkiye’s close ties with Russia and its longstanding problems with Greece.

During the parliamentary committee debate on Tuesday, Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Burak Akcapar said that during Biden’s recent phone call to Erdogan, the US leader said that he would convince Congress to unblock the F-16 sale after Ankara ratified Sweden’s NATO bid.

Ideally, Unluhisarcikli thinks that Turkiye and the US should seize the moment and use the momentum to address other outstanding problems, such as the S-400 crisis.

“Similarly, the EU could act in a strategic manner and introduce structured foreign policy dialogue with Turkiye without further delay,” he said.

For Levin, either Biden compromised and agreed to put the issue before Congress after the Turkish parliamentary committee passed the bill, or he assured Erdogan some other way.

In the meantime, Stockholm and Washington signed a defense cooperation deal on Dec. 6 to boost regional security bonds against Russia.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, sees an optimistic trajectory, foreseeing a full parliamentary vote soon.

“There is an expectation of full parliamentary vote next week, barring a last-minute surprise, such as any terror attack from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, that has in the past derailed a vote in the Turkish parliament,” he told Arab News.

After a recent PKK attack on the Turkish Armed Forces base in the Khakurk region of Iraq on December 22, 12 Turkish soldiers were killed, triggering a nationwide reaction and grief.

A PKK attack happened in early October in Ankara, hours before the Turkish parliament was set to reopen after its summer recess.

Ankara previously accused Sweden of harboring terrorists and delayed the vote mainly for this reason.

Turkiye asked Stockholm to take more measures to crack down on the PKK before Sweden’s membership bid could be ratified.

For Cagaptay, the expectation in return is that once the Congress comes back from recess on Jan. 8, there will be a vote in the US Senate approving the jet sale to Turkiye — with Washington moving in a near-synchronized move.

“It is, however, still unclear whether the deal might include Erdogan’s to Washington,” he added.