There is little at Shiogama seafood market to suggest that Japanese consumers could one day be deprived of their favorite seafood – from giant crab’s legs simmering in a winter nabe hotpot to spheres of salmon roe resting on a bed of rice wrapped in nori seaweed.
Stalls heave with huge sides of bluefin tuna, expertly transformed into more manageable portions by knife-wielding workers, while early-morning shoppers pause to inspect boxes of squid, flounder and sea pineapples landed only hours earlier.
Despite the bounty on display in this small port town, a growing body of scientific evidence – backed up by anecdotes from fishermen – points to a bleak future for Japanese cuisine as a result of the climate emergency.
Miki Seino, a Shiogama stallholder, flashes a look of weary recognition when the Observer points at her display of sanma – or Pacific saury – an autumn delicacy in Japan, where it is often served grilled or raw as sushi and sashimi.
“The catches are smaller, and the fish are thinner than they were a few years ago. We have heard about how rising sea temperatures are affecting catches here in Tohoku,” said Seino, referring to the region in north-east Japan. “And they are a lot more expensive now.”
Japan’s fisheries agency has cited changes in the marine environment due to global heating as the cause of smaller catches of saury, as well as squid, salmon and other staples of the Japanese diet.
The emergence of warm water masses in the Kuroshio – a warm north-easterly ocean current off the east coast of Japan – has pushed saury’s spawning migratory path further offshore, where food is less plentiful, resulting in depleted stocks and poorer quality fish.
Dr Aiko Yamauchi, vice president of Seafood Legacy, a Japan-based consulting firm that supports sustainable seafood businesses and environmental groups, says catches of species venerated by the Japanese have been in steep decline since 2014.
It is possible, Yamauchi said, “that other fish species will experience poor catches similar to or worse than at present. We are very concerned that if this happens, the majority of Japanese fisheries, which supply around half of the country’s seafood, will be exposed to serious damage.”